Does Post Position Matter?

Since 1900, two post positions have produced more winners than any other single PP in the Kentucky Derby. The number 1 and number 5 spots have each produced twelve Kentucky Derby winners. These two post positions have produced a combined 22% of the Kentucky Derby winners. The next closest spot that has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners are the four and ten post positions, which have each produced ten winners and combined for 18% of the winning horses at the Derby. Collectively, post positions 1, 5, 4, and 10 have accounted for 40% of the wins at the big race of Churchill Downs. Knowing this fact, does this mean that horses in these four post positions hold a statistical edge over horses running out of other post positions or is it merely a coincidence?

When looking at the Belmont Stakes, the number 1 spot has produced 23 winners, which is more than any other starting post position. The numbers 3 and 5 post position produces the second biggest set of winners, as thirteen horses have won from both the three and five positions. The number two spot has produced eleven winners at Belmont for the Belmont Stakes.

In the Preakness Stakes, the sweet spot seems to be the number six post position. Horses starting from the six spot have won fifteen races. The number four spot has produced thirteen winners. Post position seven has produced twelve winners, while the numbers two and three spots have each generated eleven winners.

Crunching the numbers of all the horese race betting Triple Crown races shows that horses from all post positions can and do win their respective races. The post position a horse starts from does not provide any horse a statistical edge over other horses. Horses running out of the number one spot have a shorter distance to run. However, they are often crowded along the rail and thus they have less room to work and make moves than those starting the race on the outside. The horses starting in the higher post positions have more room to operate by running on the outside of the track. However, with more room comes a greater distance they have to run.

The key to online horse racing is not to choose the magic post position. Instead, the magic in betting the horse races comes in finding the right horse at the right time. If a horse runs well on the outside, then it makes sense to bet him when he starts on the outside. The horse makes the post position; the post position does not make the horse.